Hindsight Bias: Why Everyone Predicted the 2008 Crash After It Happened
The Retrospective Inevitability Illusion: Baruch Fischhoff’s pioneering research on hindsight bias progressively documented one of the more reliable cognitive distortions in modern decision research: once an outcome is known, adults estimate the prior predictability of that outcome approximately 30 to 50 percent higher than they had actually estimated before the outcome occurred. The bias produces … Read more