The Coin Memory Illusion: The cumulative cognitive psychology research has progressively documented one of the more persistent cognitive distortions: adults systematically believe that random events “balance out” in the short term, with approximately 70 to 80 percent showing gambler’s fallacy reasoning in standardised tests despite the events being statistically independent. The mechanism reflects flawed intuitive … Read more
The Streak Investment Self-Deception: The cumulative behavioural finance research has progressively documented one of the more persistent investment distortions: the hot-hand fallacy — the belief that recent winning streaks predict subsequent winning — substantially affects investment decisions despite mathematical evidence that streaks are largely random. Adults applying hot-hand reasoning to investment selections consistently produce decisions … Read more
The Bear Market Login Decline: The cumulative behavioural finance research has progressively documented one of the more telling investor behavioural patterns: investors substantially reduce login frequency to investment accounts during bear markets, with the “ostrich effect” producing approximately 30 to 50 percent reduced engagement when portfolio values are declining. The mechanism reflects loss aversion combined … Read more
The One Photo, 100,000 Names Effect: The cumulative charitable giving research has progressively documented one of the more striking patterns in human empathy: one identifiable victim with a name and photograph generates more charitable donations than statistics about 100,000 anonymous victims, with the identifiable victim premium frequently exceeding 200 to 300 percent. The mechanism reflects … Read more
The 70 Percent Self-Credit Effect: The cumulative memory and judgement research has progressively documented one of the more relationship-consequential cognitive biases: adults consistently remember performing approximately 70 percent of joint physical and cognitive work, with the egocentric bias substantially exceeding partner perception and contributing to relationship friction. The mechanism reflects how memory preferentially encodes self-relevant … Read more
The Depression Forecast Distortion: The cumulative cognitive science research has progressively documented one of the more clinically consequential cognitive bias findings: depressed mood states substantially distort risk forecasting, with depressed adults forecasting approximately 40 to 60 percent higher probability of negative outcomes than non-depressed adults — with the distortion contributing to depression maintenance and impaired … Read more
The Familiar Stock Safety Illusion: The cumulative behavioural finance research has progressively documented one of the more costly cognitive biases in investing: investors substantially overweight familiar stocks in portfolios — with home country bias and brand familiarity producing approximately 20 to 30 percent portfolio concentration in familiar names regardless of actual investment merit — with … Read more
The Hammer-Doorstop Blind Spot: The cumulative cognitive psychology research has progressively documented one of the more practical findings for problem-solving: adults consistently fail to see objects in alternative functions — functional fixedness produces approximately 30 to 50 percent reduction in problem-solving success when alternative uses of familiar objects would solve the problem. The mechanism reflects … Read more
The False Self-Control Confidence: The cumulative behavioural science research has progressively documented one of the more costly self-knowledge biases: adults systematically overestimate their self-control capacity, with restraint bias producing approximately 50 to 70 percent overconfidence in resisting temptation — with the overconfidence driving exposure to temptations that more accurate self-knowledge would avoid. The mechanism reflects … Read more
The Goalkeeper Dive Paradox: The cumulative behavioural economics research has progressively documented one of the more striking examples of action bias: soccer goalkeepers dive on approximately 94 percent of penalty kicks despite the analysis showing staying centred saves more shots than diving — the action bias substantially exceeds what rational analysis would predict. The mechanism … Read more